Much of Kashmir valley, including capital Srinagar falls in the highest-risk seismic zone V. Experts say the valley could be hit by an earthquake measuring 9 on the Richter scale. But are we ready for such a scary prospect?
Sajad Ahmad
Kashmir has a long history of earthquakes. The valley, in particular, has witnessed many earthquakes wipe out the population to just a few hundred survivors several times, the last time in 1884. Then in October 2005, a 7.5 magnitude earthquake centered in Muzaffarabad laid waste miles and miles of inhabited areas along the Line of Control. It killed at least 87,000 people, turned hundreds of villages and towns into mounds of rubble and inflicted deep psychological wounds.
But, the worst may be yet to come. Experts have warned of earthquakes of “more devastating intensity”. “Muzaffarabad earthquake was just 10 percent of the intensity of the earthquake that could strike this region,” said M I Bhat, Head of department, Geology.
That is because much of Kashmir, including Srinagar, according to the National Building Code of India, falls in seismic zone V, the highest risk zone that faces the possibility of an earthquake measuring more than 9 on the Richter scale. An earthquake of such intensity can flatten several thousand miles. Giving Kashmir Company in the kill zone are Guwahati in Assam, Bhuj in Gujarat, Kohima in Nagaland, and Sadiya in Assam.
What makes Kashmir even more susceptible to a devastating earthquake is the fact that the 2005 earthquake, according to research done by scientists at Kashmir University, released just 10 per cent of the pressure that had accumulated over the years along the fault line under Kashmir. The rest of the pressure has been absorbed by the valley.
‘Preventive Measures’
And since earthquakes can neither be predicted nor prevented, it is important to put in place measures to minimize damage. One of the most important of these measures is construction of buildings as per set guideline to make them seismic proof. But in Kashmir, mainly due to the government’s indifference, most people are unaware of the guidelines for earthquake-resistant building formulated in the 1990’s.
The Government of India under the Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction Project had issued guidelines for construction of all new buildings in seismic Zone V. These include consulting structural and geotechnical engineers, who can test the soil bearings and suggest the size and type of reinforcements to be used, before starting construction. Following these guidelines, experts say, is an absolute necessity.
“The soil bearing capacity of Kashmir is low. We have to follow the construction codes so that we can save life and property. But 99 per cent of the residential structures are non-engineered and constructed without adhering to guidelines,” said J&K Director of Building Center, Javaid Shah.
To make people aware of the need to prepare for earthquakes and promote construction of seismic-proof earthquakes, the state government set up the State Disaster Management Cell in 2006. Though the cell has done a commendable work, yet especially in the areas affected by the 2005 earthquake, a lot needs to be done.
The cell is now pressing for a law to make construction of buildings according to the guidelines mandatory. “The residential structures are not constructed as per the guidelines. We have submitted the proposal to the government to make construction of houses according to set guidelines a law,” said Aamir Ali, head of the Disaster management Cell.
Ali admitted that the government has not given this aspect the attention it deserved. It, for instance, is yet to chart out a fault line map of the state to highlight the more vulnerable places. “There has been a disconnect between the scientists and the government authorities so far which has kept us away from taking necessary precautionary measures. But we will use the research of the scientists from the universities for developing the strategies to prevent fatalities during earthquake,” Ali said.
‘Technological help’
Part of the responsibility also lies with the scientists. “Universities have made the beginning, but the scientists should come up with more proposals of research and approach the government,” said Prof G M Bhat, Head of the Department of Geology at Jammu University.
For a start though, the universities of Jammu and Kashmir, with the help of the Government of India, have set up Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments at Keran, Uri, Kulgam, Aru, Kargil, Drass, Poonch, Jammu, Bani and several other places to collect data on fault lines, a pre-requisite for risk analysis and disaster management. The Kashmir University has also installed a Seismograph at Gulmarg to collect data.
The data from these instruments will help the scientists assess the movement of the earth and to prepare a comprehensive map of the fault lines.
The data collected so far by Kashmir University’s Geology and Geography departments reveal that the area west of Jehlum and South of Uri are tectonically most active parts of the valley. “The fault (fracture in the earth’s lithosphere) west of Jehlum has created a displacement of 13 meters between the different fault blocks,” said M I Bhat, head of Geology Department.
“There was only one metre of displacement at Muzaffarabad that led to the 2005 earthquake.”
The 2005 earthquake has compounded problems as it built up more pressure along the fault lines running through Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. “It has brought other faults to the threshold. As a result the situation is problematic,” Bhat said.
